Hanley (2004): Biotech Science Scan - Collected Speculations, for RSNZ/MoRST. Fulltext

Early in 2004 I participated in a group convened by the Royal Society of New Zealand at MoRST's behest that was to produce a "biotechnology science scan" covering a 15 year span. This paper [pdf, ~200k] was my initial and belated contribution, written after reading the results of the early discussions by the group and therefore benefitting from them. In it I outline a few concepts--which, as often occurs, tend to become statements of context--and some notes of caution. Then I give my thoughts on two kinds of biotech development: enablers and breakthroughs (i.e. evolutionary development of tools, and things that may shake all other predictions, respectively). The likely impact over the next 15 years is discussed. Anything that doesn't fit this scheme appears in an appendix.

As mentioned hereabouts, the final report, Biotechnologies To 2025, was published by MoRST early in 2005.