The social singularity
The End Times don't come every day. Vernor Vinge could be correct with his technological singularity notion, I guess, and a runaway feed-forward cascade of indistinguishable-from-magic technology bubbling out of existing trends may soon take us to undreamt-of places. Maybe. Alternatively, or alternately, or simultaneously, Arthur C. Clarke, he of the indistinguishable-from-magic insight, might be right: as per Childhoods' End, a geek rapture may uplift or upload us to some higher level of being, hitherto undreamt-of. But--drama aside--perhaps there are mundane, boring, ho-hum, comparatively insignificant little mindblowing revolutions to be had in the interim.
Is One Laptop Per Child one of these?
No really. Okay, there are practicalities and logistics and such, but toss those carelessly aside for a moment and think about it. Exercise some boundless optimism. Hand out a billion laptops, then sit back. You can hold your breath if you want - it won't take long. Pow! Like Childhoods' End, the kids will not wait for the rest of us. Like the technological singularity, a great change will sneak up on us and then, in a rushing moment, blast to shards the story each of us tells herself about What Happens Next, and pelt off into the future in a whirl of dust and disappointment. When one billion kids can mesh a network based on a consensus agreement, one that permits an empowering consensual hallucination, one that bypasses so many of the current channels, gates, controls and oversights - well, let's just say it could get messy. When one billion kids have a chance to see beyond the horizon, beyond their watershed, just plain beyond - what happens then? To them? To us? Everybody without a connection, or without the wherewithall to keep up (meaning, most of us) will suddenly find themselves not only on the outside of something big but with a serious Outside Context Problem.
We borrow the present from our kids; there's a good chance they'll take it back before we're certain we've done with it. Then they'll flee for the future, where singularities may come in multiples.
[Published: 12-Jul-06 | Permalink | Category: Thunked | Comments]Comments
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…Chris said:
Or maybe, they'll spend all day logged into MSN or posting utter crap on forums, like the rest of us. The thing that bothers me about the Singularity idea is the assumption that faster communication = some sort of massive shift in the basis of technology. It doesn't exactly dig wells or stop crops failing, does it? Being, generally, computer geek types, the Singularity crowd probably never stop to thing that some things in life require more than shuffling bytes.
Those graphs of technological innovation could just as easily be taken as an example of the perception of change. We think of an iPod as a big deal and a better way to attach a point to a spear as being just a historical curiousity, but the guy who made the spear may beg to differ. The written word is and was a far bigger deal than the Internet, but it still doesn't have 100% penetration after what, 8000 years?
09-Aug-06 (1521)
…Zac said:
I think Kurzweil is wrong and that Clarke was writing fantasy. But OLPC is just another step in that 8000-year uptake curve for the written word.
In his TED 2006 talk, Jeff Han shows off his lab's Minority Report-like screen interface, and, as an aside, makes light of how unhappy he is about One Laptop Per Child, because OLPC imposes by default the clumsy WIMP interface while, as he goes on to demonstrate, something much more intuitive is possible and even desirable. I think I agree with him but the practicalities are that keyboards are going to be around for a while.
Yeah, it doesn't dig wells. Certainly geeks do have a fixation on this kind of solution ("When all you have is a hammer…" becomes "When all you have is an internet…"). But I think cheap and ubiquitous comms could tip a revolution. Maybe OLPC isn't it, and mobile phones are and the revolution is upon us (hear that distant rumble getting louder?). At one or more removes these things actually do dig wells, and build better irrigation systems, and ensure people get a fair price at the Saturday market for their homegrown veg, and teach kids (not necessarily Western-style), and fetch help.
Maybe it's evolution not revolution. It would be so much more fun and interesting if it all came in a rush though.
09-Aug-06 (1605)
…Chris said:
Funny you should mention cellphones, I saw an article somewhere (New Scientist?) about the ubiquity of cellphones in developing countries, and the fact that most of them can now do more than take phone calls.
09-Aug-06 (1719)
…Zac said:
See this story from Peter Day on the BBC news site: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4648049.stm. Scroll to the heading "Phone Card Currency". Peter Day did a bit on the BBC World Service about it near the start of this year, how Kenyans are mixing their occasionally barter economy with SMS-transferable (to any account) mobile phone minutes. Basically, you can, in a moment, lend your mum, living at the other end of the country, exactly the money she needs to buy a chicken from a guy at the side of the road - so long as the three of you have a mobile phone each. She calls you ("Got a tenner, son?"), you transfer it from your account to hers ("Of course, mum."), she uses it to pay the guy ("Pleasure doing business with you out of a crate by the side of a dusty road, ma'am."), chicken for dinner at her place. Cheques, credit cards, transaction fees, branch infrastructure? No need. Everybody already carries enough hardware to function as a Point Of Sale device and a credit-card-like authenticated money proxy in the form of a phone. Nothing else is required.
I love this.
09-Aug-06 (2129)
…Doug said:
Imagine 1 billion third world people suddenly on the internet. I’m sure there are good aspects like education, but imagine the negative aspects. Millions of impoverished people mainly kids lusting after the excesses we have, being consumed by porn, and all the false doctrine (crap) on the internet. We 1st worlders have evolved our sense of or rather defense to modern media over generations. Most of us can filter the good from the bad to some degree, but a billion kids going from 0 to broadband instantly with parents that can’t help them. This will be a lost generation.
25-Aug-06 (1447)
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